DG Stock Chart – Dollar General (DG) Stock Analysis

DG offers stable earnings, consistent dividends, and a track record of beating expectations. Looking at the dg stock chart, upside (~10–20%) toward analyst targets is reasonable, though downside risk remains from macro or policy disruptions. Investors may consider accumulating near $110–$115, with watchpoints on Q2 results and tariff news.

Quick Take:

• Current Price: $111.51 (down ~0.7% today)
• 12‑Month Range: $66.43–$135.46
• Market Cap: ~$24.9 billion; P/E ≈ 21–22×; Dividend yield ~2.1%
• Analyst Consensus: Moderate Buy; 12 Buys, 15 Holds, 0 Sell
• 12‑Month Price Target Range: $80–$170 (average ≈$110–$114)

Dollar General Corporation

Sector: Consumer Defensive

Industry: Discount Stores

Employees: 194200

Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The company offers consumable products, including paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food, such as cereals, pasta, canned soups, canned meats, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables, including milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, wine, and produce; candy, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; over-the-counter medicines and personal care products including soap, body wash, shampoo, cosmetics, dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products. It also provides seasonal products comprising holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive, and home office supplies; home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, and bed and bath soft goods; and apparel products for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories. The company was formerly known as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc. and changed its name to Dollar General Corporation in 1968. Dollar General Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.

Recent Performance & Key Drivers

Q1 2025 Earnings (Reported June 2025)

• Revenue: $10.44 billion (+5.3% YoY; slightly below $10.64 billion expected)
• Net Income: $391.9 million (+7.9% YoY); EPS: $1.78 (vs $1.58 consensus)
• Same‑Store Sales: +2.4%; Average transaction value up 2.7%
• Foot Traffic: +1.9% YoY in Q1 and +6.5% in April

Strategic Initiatives

• Store remodels: ~20% of locations annually
• Digital expansion: DoorDash partnership boosted online sales +50% in Q1
• Brand collaborations: Dolly Parton seasonal line under development
• Cost controls: Pruned underperforming SKUs, raised wages, and improved operations

Challenges

• Tariffs may compress margins — 10% supply exposure
• Consumer macro‑pressures: inflation and cautious core shoppers
• Peer competition: Walmart, Amazon pushing deeper into value & rural markets
• Operational concerns: store safety, pricing irregularities, union pushback

Valuation & Analyst Sentiment

• P/E ratio (~21–22) is below sector average (~24×) and retail peers (~23×), offering reasonable valuation
• PEG ≈ 2.2; P/B ≈ 3.6 (slightly rich)
• Dividend: ~2.1–2.12% yield; quarterly payout $0.59/share
• Analysts: Moderately bullish — 28 covering, average target $109–$114 with high-upsides to $170

Price Target Snapshot:

Competitive Advantage & Risks

Strengths

• Strong footprint in underserved rural regions (19,600+ U.S. & Mexico stores)
• Resilient during economic downturns — shoppers trading up for value
• Profit diversification via remodels, partnerships, and digital channels
• Healthy cash flow (~$3 billion op cash FY2024) and return of capital via dividends & buybacks

Risks

• Tariff volatility may pressure margins despite hedging efforts
• Growing regulatory criticisms over food deserts, worker safety, and pricing accuracy
• Intense competition as Amazon/Walmart increase rural presence — wage stickiness may affect earnings

Technical & Sentiment Analysis of DG Stock Chart

• IBD Relative Strength Rating: Improved to 74 out of 99 — nearing bullish 80 threshold
• Chart setups: Nearing a flat-base breakout with impulse buy point around $97.85
• Multiple bullish triggers: Q1 earnings beat, same‑store growth, remodel rollout, digital expansion

Price Forecast & Catalysts

Potential Upside Drivers

• Continued digital momentum—DoorDash rollout and e‑commerce growth
• Ongoing remodel program improves sales/customer experience
• Consumer shift toward value amid inflation
• Tariff resilience and cost disciplines maintain margins

Risks That Could Limit Gains

• Renewed macro stress affecting low‑income shoppers
• Unexpected tariff escalation
• Retail sector weakness (Walmart/Target disappointments)
• Regulatory/legal setbacks

Price Outlook

• Base case: Stable to modest upside towards $120 based on earnings consistency and analyst targets
• Bull case: Should DG sustain SSS growth and digital traction, upper target range ($135–$
  170. becomes more plausible
• Bear case: Consumer pullback or rising costs could push price to $80–$100 zone

Who Should Consider DG?

• Value & dividend seekers: Offers a yield near 2%, stable cash flow, and low volatility
• Contrarian growthers: Analysts believe the stock is under-earning relative to fundamentals
• Economy-sensitive traders: DG performs well during downturns, while still offering long-term upside

Suitable For:

• Long-term investors seeking stable dividends and segment resilience
• Traders monitoring technical breakouts (flat‑base, RS >70)
• Retail investors bullish on discount retail and rural e-commerce expansion