EUR USD Technical Analysis: June 2025

Current Price Context:
As of mid‑June 2025, EUR/USD trades in the 1.1450–1.1550 range, shaped by dovish U.S. economic signals, ECB rate tones, and geopolitical shifts. Key moving averages and oscillators suggest varied technical momentum, making EUR/USD technical analysis crucial for understanding future movements.

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Macro Drivers & Outlook

• Fed vs. ECB Policies
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds rate at 4.25–4.50% after its June meeting and signaled mixed expectations—some see one cut this year, others none.
  • ECB Vice President de Guindos reaffirmed confidence in eurozone inflation near 2%, while the ECB remains cautious about further rate cuts and comfortable with current euro strength.
• Dollar Weakness Trend
  • Market positioning in FX options favors further USD downside—specifically via USD put options—supporting euro bullish structures.
  • Morgan Stanley projects a 9% drop in the dollar index over the next 12 months, eyeing €1.25 by.

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Key Technical Levels

Zone	Significance	Notes
1.1680–1.1705	Liquidity cluster	Potential short-term target before retracement
1.1570–1.1580	Resistance ceiling	Caps intraday rallies; validated by recent price highs
1.1520	Pivot resistance	Daily pivot from ActionForex
1.1370–1.1400	Lower support band	Buy zone for intraday buyers
1.1200	Major downside pivot	Watch if troubles intensify

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Chart Pattern & Oscillator Setup

• Chart Patterns
  • A classic retracement into the 1.1680–1.1705 zone is building on the 4‑hour/daily charts.
  • Recent resistance near 1.1570–1.1580 highlights range upper boundary — critical for breakout or pullback decisions .
• Moving Averages & Oscillators
  • TipRanks data:
    • 10/20/50/100/200‑day EMAs & SMAs are overwhelmingly bullish.
    • RSI (~61 neutral), Stochastics overbought .
  • ActionForex pivots: Daily pivot sits at 1.1465, range bias leans bullish if price holds above.

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Trade Strategies

a) Tactical Short Entry

• Setup: Short near 1.1680–1.1705 after confirmed reversal candle
• Target: 1.1520–1.1550 zone
• Stop: Above 1.1720

b) Range Trading

• Sell from 1.1570–1.1580 ceiling — target 1.1470–1.1500
• Buy dips into 1.1370–1.1400 — aim for 1.1520–1.1550

c) Breakout Play

• Bullish breakout above 1.1580 with high volume → target ~1.1680+
• Bearish breakdown below 1.1370 → potential move toward 1.1200

d) Swing Trading

• Entry: Combine price+volume with oscillators forming bullish divergence near lower band
• Hold period: 3–10 days
• Risk Management: Tight stops under swing lows; size position per ~1–2% of capital

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Risk & News Watchlist

• Upcoming Caution Zones:
  • FOMC minutes/statements – any hint of rate pause lowers USD value further.
  • ECB commentary/data – inflation/labour market shifts could swing euro sentiment.
  • Geopolitical headlines – U.S. holiday liquidity thinness (Juneteenth) increased volatility.
  • FX options dynamics – watch USD put demand trajectory.
• Volatility Watch:
  • Be cautious during London open (07–10 GMT) and NY open (13–15 GMT), where price whipsaws likely.

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EUR/USD Forecast Summary

• Short-term (1–7 days): Consolidation or mild uptick toward 1.1570–1.1580, followed by pullback.
• Medium-term (1–3 months): Underpinned by weakening USD; possible drift to 1.15–1.18.
• Long-term (6–12 months): Models forecast euro climbs to $1.25 by mid‑2026, contingent on Fed cuts and steady ECB policy.

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EUR USD Technical Analysis Final Take

The current EUR/USD technical landscape favors a short‑term range trade between 1.1580 and 1.1370, with a bias upward based on macro USD weakness. Smart traders can enter tactical positions, blending breakout and retracement strategies with defined risk. Major pivot zones and policy catalysts ahead will shape the next directional leg.